XWIN Japan2026-11-15

Bitcoin After U.S. Midterms: What SOPR Reveals About the Next Recovery

Bitcoin has fallen from roughly $77,000 around the November 3, 2026 U.S. midterm elections to about $64,400. Could history offer clues about what comes next? One useful on-chain metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). A reading above 1 means coins moved on-chain are, on average, realizing profits; below 1 indicates realized losses. In 2018, Bitcoin was down 45.5% one month after the midterms and 47.2% after three months. SOPR dropped near 0.87 as loss realization intensified. A stronger recovery did not emerge until around April 2019. The prolonged bear market and Bitcoin Cash hard-fork turmoil were key factors. In 2022, the FTX collapse drove SOPR toward 0.88. Bitcoin was down 7.0% after one month, yet up 23.7% after three months. By January 2023, SOPR was moving above 1 more frequently as BTC recovered past $20,000. In 2026, the supplied CryptoQuant chart shows SOPR slipping below 1, near 0.98. Selling at a loss is increasing, but the reading is not as extreme as in 2018 or 2022. The next checkpoints are December 3, 2026, and February 3, 2027. A more convincing recovery would involve SOPR holding above 1 alongside renewed spot demand, ETF inflows and healthier liquidity. The lesson: Midterm elections alone do not determine Bitcoin's direction. Watch whether loss realization subsides and real buying demand returns.