MAC_D2026-11-13

Bitcoin: Historical Bull Market Drawdowns and Short-Term Holder Losses

Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp correction amid growing concerns over potential interest rate hikes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and weakness in AI-related stocks, pushing market sentiment into extreme fear. According to the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Drawdowns indicator, the historical average drawdown from previous peaks across Bitcoin bull cycles is approximately 14.39%. As Bitcoin's market capitalization has grown, more recent cycles have also shown relatively smaller drawdowns compared to earlier cycles. Bitcoin is currently down approximately 19% from its peak, exceeding the historical average drawdown observed during previous bull markets. Assuming the broader bull market structure remains intact, historical drawdown patterns suggest that the current price range could be an important area for a potential market bottom. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR (7MA) has fallen to approximately 0.987, indicating increased loss realization among short-term holders. This level is comparable to those observed around major market bottoms during previous bull markets.