XWIN Japan2026-11-08

Why Bitcoin’s Rebound Keeps Failing: Short-Term Holder Losses and Shrinking Stablecoin Reserves | XWIN

Bitcoin traded near $75,767 early November 9 after failing to hold $76,000. Bybit futures showed a bounce toward $76,200 on November 8 before retreating to $75,650. The rebound faded. Selling pressure persists. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) reached -105,300 BTC since October 14, reflecting aggressive net selling over that period, not exchange withdrawals. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $411.9 million in outflows on November 6, including $403 million from IBIT. Weekly outflows totaled $1.28 billion. ETFs were closed over the weekend. US October payrolls rose 165,000 and unemployment stood at 4.1%. Markets await November 10 CPI data. Some whale accumulation signals have emerged, but broad spot demand has not clearly recovered. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin: Short Term Holder SOPR stands near 0.99, below the break-even threshold of 1. Recently moved coins held by short-term investors are, on average, moving at a loss. Meanwhile, MVRV at 1.40 suggests the broader market retains unrealized gains. Newer holders face greater pressure, although transfers are not necessarily sales. Its second chart, All Stablecoins(ERC20): Exchange Reserve - All Exchanges, shows balances falling from roughly $75 billion in April to $49.7 billion in early November—down about 34%. This could mean thinner buying liquidity on exchanges, but does not prove capital left crypto: funds may move to DeFi, other chains or wallets. Reports of improving stablecoin inflows are encouraging, but renewed BTC buying remains unconfirmed. My outlook is cautious. A lasting recovery requires SOPR above 1, stablecoin reserves to stabilize, and spot CVD and ETF flows to improve. What matters is not just a Bitcoin rebound, but whether real buyers return.