nocoffeenobrain2026-11-08

Is Long-Term BTC Moving to Exchanges at an Increasing Rate?

The overall inflow trend started picking up around June, gradually at first. But after the Ledger hardware wallet hack on October 9, we saw a much sharper increase in long-term BTC moving to CEXs. The chart uses a 30D average, so the acceleration only becomes really visible towards late October. Then came the Binance hack on October 29. We could see another significant move in the data around this period, although it's too early to establish whether the two events are directly related. My first thought was that more long-term BTC moving to exchanges means more potential sell pressure. But I'm starting to think there might be more to it. Maybe some holders are starting to trust exchanges more than their own wallets. Not everyone is comfortable managing their own security, especially after seeing several hardware wallet and exchange hacks. Could this be a shift in how retail investors think about custody? We still don't know why these older coins are moving to exchanges. But the data is showing a clear increase in long-term BTC inflows to CEXs, and I think it's worth looking beyond the usual selling-pressure narrative.