XWIN Japan2026-11-07

Why Can't Bitcoin Hold $80,000? Two On-Chain Charts Reveal Who Is Buying

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $81,000 on November 4 but slipped back toward $75,000 within days. The key question is who is buying. The rebound was driven partly by short covering. CryptoQuant reported about $290 million in short liquidations. Yet spot demand remained weak: the 30-day average net spot volume delta was around -$28 million on Binance and -$9.4 million on Coinbase. Short-term holders also transferred about 32,695 BTC to exchanges at a loss on November 6. Transfers do not prove sales. Institutional demand offered little support. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $411.9 million in net outflows on November 6, including $403 million from BlackRock's IBIT, according to Farside Investors. Stablecoin supply also contracted by about 4.9% over 30 days. Two CryptoQuant charts reveal the underlying weakness. Apparent Demand Growth estimates how much BTC the market absorbs based on issuance and changes in older supply. Its one-year measure has weakened, and the 30-day bars remain negative. Price rebounds have not been matched by sustained demand recovery. The Coinbase Premium Index compares BTC pricing on Coinbase and Binance. It was frequently positive during the 2025 rally but has spent much of 2026 below zero, suggesting weaker relative U.S. buying pressure. Even when BTC rebounded in August and September, the premium largely stayed negative. Some large wallets may be accumulating, but exchange movements alone do not prove purchases. A sustained recovery requires more than short liquidations. I will watch for improvement in 30-day apparent demand, a sustained positive Coinbase premium, and renewed ETF inflows. Price can rebound before demand does. The real test is whether committed spot buyers return.