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Bitcoin Holdings in Miner Wallets Are Declining
The declining amount of BTC held in Bitcoin miners' wallets is drawing attention. This decrease in miner reserves may indicate that miners are selling part of their holdings or transferring BTC to other wallets. The Miner Position Index (MPI) shows that miner outflows are significantly above historical averages, suggesting that miners are moving more Bitcoin than usual. Although transfers to exchanges do not necessarily indicate direct selling, they may signal potential selling preparations or liquidity needs. Therefore, rising MPI levels can serve as an early warning of potential selling pressure, especially when analyzed alongside other on-chain metrics. Miners' revenue and cost balance also supports this outlook. Daily revenues remaining close to long-term averages suggest that mining profitability has not improved significantly. Meanwhile, electricity, hardware, maintenance, personnel, and other operational expenses continue to put pressure on miners. When revenues struggle to cover these costs, miners may need to sell part of their newly mined BTC or existing reserves to maintain operations and ensure cash flow. As an important source of Bitcoin supply, miners can influence market dynamics. If they release more BTC into the market while demand remains weak, selling pressure may increase. Consequently, elevated miner outflows represent a key risk factor to monitor in the short and medium term.