XWIN Japan
Bitcoin’s Recovery Challenge: Three October Charts Reveal Shifting Supply and Demand
In my previous column "Bitcoin Shows Signs of an October Bottom as U.S. Midterms Approach" 6 days ago, I highlighted signs of Bitcoin base building: low exchange reserves, whale accumulation and improving estimated demand. Updated CryptoQuant charts show these supports remain, but recovery is uneven. 1. Exchange reserves rebound. Reserves remain low versus January, yet have risen from roughly 2.67 million BTC in early October to around 2.68 million. Low reserves do not mean supply keeps shrinking. Transfers may reflect custody changes, so rising reserves alone do not prove selling. 2. Spot demand recovery falters. The 30-day demand chart shows spot demand approaching zero before turning negative again. Positive perpetual futures demand supports total demand. This breakdown differs from the Apparent Demand metric discussed previously; their values are not directly comparable. 3. Whale behavior diverges. Holders of 100–1,000 BTC remain net accumulators over 60 days, below their late-September peak despite a modest rebound. Net holdings declines among the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort have narrowed toward zero, while the over-10,000 BTC cohort is negative. Accumulation is not broad-based. These rolling figures include pre-October activity and can reflect transfers between cohorts. I still see conditions that could support a base. A durable recovery needs sustained positive spot demand, buyers absorbing BTC returning to exchanges, and accumulation spreading across holder groups. Expectations around the midterms and monetary policy must translate into actual buying. The key is whether rallies gain a growing, lasting base of buyers.