Facundo Fama
Bitcoin: The State of Holders - NUPL ↓
• During the previous bear cycle, NUPL declined for approximately one year, eventually falling below 0 before beginning a sustained recovery. It reached -0.31 (blue). • In the current cycle, the deterioration also lasted about one year, but the recovery began from a considerably less severe level of market stress. NUPL never fell below 0 and reached a low of only +0.09 (green), meaning that the market remained in aggregate unrealized profit even at the deepest point of the decline. • From its low, NUPL increased to +0.38 (yellow), representing a rise of approximately 300%. This occurred in roughly three months. The last time a recovery of similar magnitude occurred after a downtrend was in early 2023, which preceded a major bullish trend that extended through 2025.