thechessONCHAIN2026-10-04

Coins Held 6 to 24 Months, 31.94% of Bitcoin's Supply, Carry an Average Cost Above Price

At the October 3 close, Bitcoin traded at $84,765.53. Three age bands of supply have an average cost above that price: - 6 to 12 months: 17.12% of supply, $88,943 (+4.9%) - 12 to 18 months: 8.73%, $109,495 (+29.2%) - 18 to 24 months: 6.09%, $88,416 (+4.3%) Average cost is the Realized Price by age band: the average price at which each band's coins last moved. What is not new, and what is - At least one of these three bands has had an average cost above price on 323 of the last 364 days: every day but one since November 14, 2025. - What changed is the short end. Coins held 1 to 6 months have had an average cost below price for 44 days in a row, the longest run in the last 12 months (51 days in total): 1 to 3 months at $68,341 (19.4% below), 3 to 6 months at $71,430 (15.7% below). - Every band older than 2 years also has an average cost below price. What it means These are the only bands whose average holder is underwater: coins that last moved 6 to 24 months ago. These already count as Long-Term Holders (LTH: coins unmoved for about five months or more). Their spending is ordinary: 272,156 BTC moved on-chain in the last 30 days, the 60th percentile of 30-day windows this year. Limits - Band averages hide coins on both sides of price. CryptoQuant's supply in loss is 25.09%, below the 31.94% in these bands. - The 6 to 12 month band is only 4.9% above price. A close above $88,943 would leave only the 12 to 18 month band above price, as long as average costs hold.