Trdaer_Gemini2026-10-01

MVRV Z-Score Holds Above Its 365-Day Average: Long-Term Structure Still Favors the Upside

The MVRV Ratio Z-Score shows how stretched Bitcoin’s market value is relative to its aggregate on-chain cost basis and historical range. Very high readings have often appeared near overheated cycle zones, while deeply negative readings have been associated with major bear-market bottoms. For the current market, however, I think the relationship with the 365-day moving average is especially important. Historically, once the MVRV Z-Score moved above its 365-day average, that average often acted as support during the broader bullish phase. This does not mean price rises without corrections. Short-term pullbacks can still occur, sometimes quite sharply, while the longer-term structure remains bullish. The key question is whether the Z-Score can continue holding above its 365-day average. As long as that support remains intact, I would view the long-term valuation momentum as favorable for further upside. If the Z-Score decisively loses the 365-day average and fails to reclaim it, that would be a more meaningful warning that the broader bullish structure is weakening. My current view: • Long term: bullish structure remains intact while the 365-day average holds • Short term: corrections are still possible • Key risk signal: sustained loss of the 365-day moving average The important point is not whether Bitcoin experiences a correction. It is whether that correction breaks the long-term valuation structure.