RugaResearch2026-08-18

Spot and Futures Demand Agree for the First Time in Months

Spot and perpetual futures demand growth have both crossed back above zero on the 30-day sum. It is the first time in months that the two are positive at the same time. What makes that worth noting is the last time only one of them was. Through April and May, futures demand ran strongly positive while spot demand stayed underwater the entire way. Price went from roughly $70K to $82K on that, then gave all of it back in June when futures demand printed the deepest negative on this chart. Leverage can move price. It cannot hold it. This time spot is participating. That is the difference, and it is the only reason this reading deserves a post. Now the limits. The cross is shallow. Both series are sitting close to the zero line rather than pushing away from it, and a 30-day sum that just turned can turn back inside a week. One indicator does not make a floor. What I want to see is spot holding above zero while price does nothing in particular. Demand that shows up when nothing is happening is the kind that lasts.