thechessONCHAIN
Bitcoin Active Addresses Returned to Levels Seen During 2018-19
Active Addresses count unique Bitcoin addresses that sent or received BTC each day. These addresses are not necessarily unique users. The 30-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) smooth daily noise. Recent lows compared with 2018-19: - 30-day EMA: 609,688 on July 19, 2026, versus 570,710 in July 2018 - 100-day EMA: 621,957 on July 27, 2026, versus 605,433 in January 2019 When Bitcoin reached its $3,206 price bottom on December 14, 2018, the two averages stood at 625,967 and 632,754, respectively. The extrema were not synchronized: the 30-day EMA low came 166 days before the price bottom, while the 100-day EMA low came 44 days after it. Similar activity levels also appeared during the 2016-17 bull-market advance. The level itself is not specific to price bottoms. Where we are now Bitcoin's price low so far was $58,535 on June 30, 2026. The 30-day and 100-day activity lows followed 19 and 27 days later. Both averages have since turned upward, closing August 8 at 664,764 and 640,603, respectively. The current fact is a joint recovery: Bitcoin remains above its June low and both activity averages remain above their July lows. This is compatible with a bottoming hypothesis, but the historical comparison does not confirm or time one. Three levels now matter: - Above 609,688, the 30-day activity recovery remains intact - Above 621,957, the 100-day activity recovery remains intact - Above $58,535, June 30 remains Bitcoin's period low A break below an activity low would invalidate only that part of the recovery. The deeper 2018-19 readings would become historical references, not predicted targets. A Bitcoin close below $58,535 would separately invalidate the price-bottom hypothesis. For now, the data supports a possible bottoming structure, not a standalone buy signal.