STASolutions2026-07-29

Bitcoin ahead of the final sell-off – then a trend reversal

Bitcoin is trading in a bear market but appears to be exhausting it. From the all-time high, the individual sell-offs in the price are becoming shorter, while the bullish counter-reactions are increasing. As a result, the distances between the successive price lows are getting shorter and shorter, especially since the sell-off from early July barely fell below the low from early February. Since then, the price has stabilized around $60,000, so that selling interest in the market can clearly no longer assert itself. Overall, the momentum of the bear market is therefore weakening and indicates an ending downtrend. In the trend structures, according to Elliott Waves, an ABC correction is to be expected, similar to the 2022 bear market. This ABC would lead to the supercycle wave (2), whose target lies in the marked based target zone ($35,564 – $62,413). Since the price has already reached the corresponding upper edge, the medium- to long-term probabilities of a cyclical trend reversal are increasing. Furthermore, technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI already show the typical signals of a bullish trend reversal, including bullish crosses, bullish divergences, and oversold price levels. As a result, a bottom no longer seems far away, even though the downtrend still appears dominant. A final sell-off must therefore primarily be expected, which should lead toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $51,336 (red arrow). Around the $50,000 level, various TA relevant parameters are located, such as the structural high from March 2022, which also caught the bottom during the summer correction in 2024. Likewise, the Realized Price and the 200-week SMA currently lie at these price levels, which historically signaled the bear market bottoms.