ScenarioX
Spot Demand Weakens While Bitcoin Remains Structurally Fragile
Bitcoin's 30-day Spot Demand recovered sharply to around -80K BTC in early July but has since deteriorated again to nearly -170K BTC. Despite this significant decline in spot demand, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable, mainly due to easing short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market. However, derivatives demand remains insufficient to support a sustainable uptrend on its own. This leaves the market in a structurally fragile state, where renewed spot selling could trigger a sharp downside move. If spot selling stays muted, derivatives-driven momentum may continue to fuel a technical rebound for a while. However, the rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in a significant long liquidation event.