Yonsei_dent2026-07-04

Heavy Overhead Supply and Vulnerable Market Structure

The market share-weighted average cost basis for Short-Term Holders (1w-1m, 1m-3m, and 3m-6m cohorts) currently sits at $74.6k. At current price levels, these investors are experiencing an average loss of approximately 18%, a trend that has persisted since early June. Because short-term holders are highly vulnerable to unrealized losses, the prolonged duration of this underwater phase means the risk of panic selling in response to even minor negative news or events remains extremely high. The situation is equally severe for the 6-12 month holders who entered the market near the peak of the bull run. They are enduring significant pain as prices decline. Notably, their share of the realized cap has surged to 35.1%. It is highly likely that this group is facing intense psychological pressure on par with that of the short-term holders. In conclusion, the current market is in a heavy and fragile state, actively suppressed by a massive wall of underwater supply overhead.