XWIN Japan2026-04-29

Policy Credibility Risk and Bitcoin — The New Dominant Driver After the FOMC

“I won’t see you next time.” With that closing, the Jerome Powell era came to an end. On the surface, the FOMC delivered what markets expected: a rate hold with no surprise. But beneath it, a structural shift is emerging. The key change was the Fed’s inflation tone. “Inflation remains elevated” was a clear upgrade from prior language, signaling that the Fed still prioritizes inflation control and is not ready to cut. This effectively pushes back expectations for early easing. More importantly, the press conference revealed a shift in focus. Questions centered less on rates and more on Fed independence. Powell emphasized that “central bank independence separates successful countries from unsuccessful ones.” If that credibility is questioned, inflation expectations become harder to anchor, potentially leading to higher long-term yields and greater market instability. In this context, attention turns to Kevin Warsh, a potential next Fed Chair. Known as a hawk prioritizing inflation discipline, his leadership could delay easing further and tighten liquidity conditions. At the same time, his perceived alignment with Donald Trump raises questions about how markets will assess Fed independence. Bitcoin reflects this shift. Price remained around $76,000, not due to lack of catalysts, but due to insufficient conditions for a sustained rally. Bitcoin is fundamentally a liquidity-driven asset. Without fresh capital—ETF inflows or stablecoin expansion—upside is limited. A stronger dollar reinforces this constraint, as global liquidity tightens. Historically, BTC struggles to break higher under such conditions. In conclusion, this FOMC was not bearish, but it reinforced a key reality: Bitcoin is facing a ceiling defined by liquidity constraints and policy credibility.