Facundo Fama2026-04-24

Bitcoin $79K: Don’t FOMO, Stay Cautious ↓

• The market has recovered in the short term, but at the macro level, price action, on-chain data, and derivatives show that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend. The analysis across the three areas is presented in the images. • The analysis includes: Bitcoin price on the weekly timeframe (including the SMA50 and Anchored VWAPs from the Fourth Halving and the latest ATH), Open Interest on the 3-day timeframe, Realized Cap on the weekly timeframe, NUPL and Supply in Loss. • I used Japanese candlesticks as a method to represent all the market data analyzed in this post. • The objective of doing this is to use the same data visualization method across different areas, thereby unifying the analytical framework to seek cross-domain confluence. • If you would like to learn more about this topic, I invite you to read the technical dashboard I developed on this subject. It includes the history of Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links included). • The dashboard demonstrates, through empirical examples, for the first time that Japanese charting methods, with more than 200 years of history and part of the CMT body of knowledge, a designation recognized by FINRA and the SEC, are applied directly to many professional indicators (on-chain and derivatives) and can be used for trading.