GugaOnChain
Why the best time to buy Bitcoin might not be now, despite the strong relief rally
The Bitcoin: MVRV Ratio and Realized Price (SMA-30-365) indicator guides the on-chain structure of the movement. With the current MVRV (1.3856) positioned above its short moving average (SMA-30: 1.2947), the intraday traction gains validity. However, the distance relative to the macro line (SMA-365: 1.8620) rules out the risk of a systemic euphoria top, keeping the cost basis (Realized Price) at a safe US$ 54,244. The market aggression momentum, validating this rise by marking 1.1247 and surpassing its SMA-7 of 1.0433, clearly endorses the current buying climax on the leading exchange in global market share, through the Bitcoin: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance indicator. PRICE ACTION Analyzing the price action, we observe the breakout of the ascending channel resistance on the daily chart and, by checking the RSI at 67.85 — right on the threshold of the overbought region (RSI: 70) — we identify a stretched market, with little room to continue advancing and with a high probability of a correction (pullback) in the coming days. It also becomes clear that the best time to enter BTC would not be at this resistance breakout, but rather at the bottom of the correction. CONCLUSION From the perspective of a pessimistic scenario, due to some still questionable points in the agreement between the US and Iran, in addition to the continuous tension between Israel and Lebanon, one cannot rule out the possibility that, in a potential correction, the asset returns to the channel support, in the region between US$ 70 thousand and US$ 65 thousand. The momentum brought relief to the market, but constant monitoring remains the master key.