Darkfost2026-04-14

Bitcoin CDD collapse signals reduced long term holder activity

After a prolonged period during which LTHs were significantly more active on Bitcoin, their behavior now appears to be shifting. Since November, the CDD (30-dma) has dropped sharply, indicating a clear decline in LTH activity. It has fallen from 1.6 million to 330,000, representing a fourfold decrease in activity. CDD, which measures the number of days a BTC has been held before being moved, is an effective tool for capturing LTH behavior. When it rises sharply, it typically suggests that LTHs may be preparing to sell recently moved coins. However, with the growing number of large entities holding BTC and the emergence of quantum-related concerns, many coins can now be moved without necessarily being sold. Some BTC movements are driven by security measures or UTXO consolidation, as seen when Coinbase moved around 800,000 BTC in November. Other entities may also transfer BTC to change the type of address used for custody. Certain address formats are more resilient to quantum threats or allow for lower transaction costs. That said, when CDD declines to this extent, it still indicates that selling pressure is decreasing. Notably, CDD has now returned to levels of reduced activity that had not been observed since 2023.