Crypto Dan
Market Bottom Signals Indicated by Long-Term Holder Capitulation
A decline in the Long-Term Holder SOPR below 1 indicates that even long-term investors are selling at a loss. Because long-term holders are the least sensitive to short-term volatility, a phase in which they begin to realize losses can be interpreted as a broader market-wide capitulation. By this point, short-term holders have likely already exited the market or suffered significant losses. In other words, the majority of market participants are operating at a loss. Historically, such conditions have often led to periods where selling pressure gradually becomes exhausted, resulting in market bottoms or zones close to long-term lows. While it may be premature to identify the current market as the absolute bottom, a phase in which losses become widespread would likely represent the final stage of fear and the beginning of opportunity.