burakkesmeci2026-03-27

Bitcoin is down 53% from its peak — where are we in the cycle, and where is the bottom?

Bitcoin has lost 53% of its value since October 2025. Looking at historical bear cycles, this number isn't unusual: the 2017-18 bear saw an 84% drawdown, the 2021-22 bear hit 77%, and the current 2025+ cycle sits at 53% so far. This correction isn't deep by historical standards — but history also reminds us that the 40-70% range is still on the table. As of March 24, 2026, the key whale cost basis levels tell a clear story. New Whales (<155d) sit at $82.8K — acting as resistance well above current price. Binance User Deposit Address at $58.9K and Miner Whales at $55.9K remain the first serious support zone below. With BTC now at $66K, the price is deep underwater for new whales. A sustained recovery is difficult as long as this group remains in loss. The STH cost map as of March 26 confirms the same picture. STH Realized Price (overall) sits at $86.9K, STH 1M-3M at $82.6K, STH 3M-6M at $96K, SMA365 at $97.7K — all acting as resistance. The only nearby level in play is STH 1W-1M at $70.1K, which now sits above current price at $66K. Realized Price at $54.3K remains the macro support floor. Every major cost cluster is overhead. Until we see a weekly close above $86.9K, these are the levels to watch — nothing more, nothing less.