ScenarioX2026-03-10

Re-Accumulation by Large Whales (1K–10K BTC): Prelude of Upcoming Rally

Changes in the total balance of Bitcoin addresses holding 1K–10K BTC—commonly classified as large holders—have historically acted as a leading indicator of market cycles. In past cycles, whale balances typically declined near market tops as distribution occurred, while during corrections or bear phases balances increased as accumulation resumed. Sustained accumulation has often been followed by strong price advances. A similar pattern is now emerging. After the recent market correction, the total balance of these addresses has begun rising again, rebounding from levels last seen in January 2023, when the current cycle started. This suggests the market may be entering a re-accumulation phase within a broader bullish cycle. At the same time, derivatives markets show signs of deleveraging, with declining Open Interest and neutral funding rates, while the recovery of the Coinbase Premium indicates renewed spot demand. If whale accumulation continues alongside steady Bitcoin ETF demand, circulating supply could gradually tighten, potentially creating upward pressure on price in the medium term.