Darkfost2026-02-24

BTC drifting toward the LTH pain point

📊 As the situation on BTC fails to improve, it remains important to keep analyzing the behavior of the different investor cohorts in the market. One of the cornerstone cohorts in this framework is Long Term Holders, known to be less sensitive to short term price fluctuations. 💥 Currently, LTHs are sitting on an average profit of roughly 74%. This profit margin continues to decline as price moves closer to the LTH cost basis, currently estimated around $38,900. This cost basis is not static and keeps rising over time as STHs who acquired BTC at higher prices transition into the LTH category. Looking at historical precedent, each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of ~20%. It is only after this phase that the market has been able to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal. ⚠️ That said, this should not be interpreted as a rule but rather as an observation based on a limited number of occurrences. Nevertheless, it remains a scenario worth considering and preparing for. Given how this cycle has evolved, with the arrival of institutions, corporate entities, and even sovereign actors, it is possible that these structural changes may be sufficient to alter the outcome.