TeddyVision2026-02-02

Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Points to a Structural U.S. Spot Vacuum

Comparing Feb - Apr 2025 with the period from Nov 2025 to today shows how much weaker U.S. spot demand has become. In Feb - Apr 2025, Coinbase Premium was negative, but it came in bursts. Discounts showed up, got worked off, and didn’t stick. That’s more consistent with tactical selling than a market with no bid. Now it’s different. The negative prints are deeper and they stick. Premium stays below zero for long stretches, with only brief, shallow relief. That’s not just selling - it’s U.S. spot demand staying on the sidelines. Short dips can happen for many reasons. But when the discount persists even after price has already adjusted, it usually means buyers aren’t stepping in. What it looks like in practice: • Dips aren’t getting absorbed by U.S. spot flows • Rebounds lack spot confirmation • Price action leans more on derivatives and short-term positioning 👉 U.S. spot is weaker now than in spring 2025 - in both depth and duration. Until Coinbase Premium turns and holds, upside remains fragile 🧸 DYOR