GugaOnChain2026-02-02

PRICE ACTION: The 200-Period Moving Average and the Probability of an Inevitable Encounter with Bitcoin

Beyond serving as faithful trend trackers, moving averages also act as dynamic levels of support and resistance. On the weekly time frame, price is already moving within a new and well-defined downtrend channel, heading toward a decisive encounter with the 200-period moving average at $58K. To reach this target, however, the support of the downtrend channel will need to be breached — a barrier that, given the current context, seems far from insurmountable. From this analysis, it becomes clear that this move is nearly inevitable, since price is on the threshold of oversold territory on the RSI (registering 32.72), a region that, when price entered it on this time frame, historically marked the bottom of the last two Bear Markets, as mentioned in a recent analysis. There is also a not-so-distant probability of price retreating to $55.8K, which is the Realized Price level, according to on-chain data. 35 DAYS OF OVERSOLD RSI At the last bottom, price remained submerged in this region for an extensive period: from June 6 to July 11, 2022, totaling 35 uninterrupted days. An analysis of on-chain data reveals that during Bear Markets, large investors tend to anticipate accumulation, positioning themselves well before reaching this critical level. Furthermore, it is a market consensus that when the RSI falls below 30 points, buying momentum intensifies significantly. The question now is: will we test investor resilience again with a prolonged plunge like that one in 2026? CONCLUSION With Bitcoin valued at $77,1K at the time of this analysis and having suffered a 40% correction from its ATH on October 6, 2025, the current scenario points to a critical and decisive phase, where the testing of these historical supports will define the market structure for the coming months.