우민규 Woominkyu
Early Bear Market Signal
Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss (%) is starting to trend upward again. Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets, when losses begin to spread beyond short-term holders and gradually reach longer-term participants. In previous cycles (2014, 2018, 2022), this metric turned up before the actual market bottom, while price continued to weaken. True bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded significantly further. Currently, Supply in Loss remains well below historical capitulation levels, but the directional change itself is meaningful. This suggests the market may be transitioning into a bear market structure, rather than experiencing a temporary pullback within a bull trend.