XWIN Japan2026-01-23

Bitcoin’s Realized P&L Signals a Structural Shift — On-Chain Data Reveals the “Hidden Side” of Price

Bitcoin’s market structure is undergoing a meaningful transition beneath the surface of price action. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders have entered a net realized loss phase on a 30-day basis for the first time since October 2023. This shift suggests more than a short-term pullback, pointing instead to a change in underlying market behavior. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, notes that since December 23, 2024, cumulative realized losses over the past 30 days have reached approximately 69,000 BTC. While smaller realized losses were observed in October 2023, those episodes were brief and quickly reversed. The current phase differs in both scale and persistence, indicating that the profit-taking regime is fading. The trend in realized profits reinforces this view. Realized profits peaked at around 1.2 million BTC in March 2024 and 1.1 million BTC in December 2024, but subsequently declined to 517,000 BTC in July 2025 and 331,000 BTC by October. Notably, this contraction occurred even as prices remained elevated, signaling a loss of upside momentum beneath the surface. This pattern closely resembles late-stage bull market dynamics seen in 2021–2022, when realized profits weakened before prices entered a sustained downturn. On a longer horizon, annual net realized profits have compressed from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to roughly 2.5 million BTC in early 2026—levels comparable to the early phase of the 2022 bear market. Rather than signaling an immediate collapse, current on-chain data suggests Bitcoin is transitioning from a mature bull phase into a more selective and volatile environment. Monitoring realized profit and loss provides critical insight into this “hidden side” of price as the market moves into its next phase.