oinonen_t2026-01-06

EWR Signals Bitcoin Returning to $100K

[Context] After a disappointing last quarter (Q4) of 2025, bitcoin has been regaining some strength in early 2026, rising by 7 percent in a week. After the late 2025 correction, multiple CryptoQuant on-chain indicators are forecasting bitcoin’s recovery, and a return to the critical $100K level. Bitcoin’s positive early January has been supported by institutional demand and a generally optimistic sentiment. [Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR)] The Binance-related Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) shows elevated figures in December and January, mirroring a returning whale presence. The 9-day moving average of EWR has reached 0.43, representing the highest value so far in 2026. The Exchange Whale Ratio is CryptoQuant’s native on-chain metric that measures the influence of large transactions (often associated with whales, or high-net-worth investors) on cryptocurrency exchanges. The metric can imply increased selling pressure, as large investors depositing on exchanges often aim to trade or sell. However, in the current market structure I interpret the stable EWR as mirroring the exhaustion of whale-related selling pressure, enabling bitcoin’s recovery to the $100K level. [About Binance] Binance has historically been a whale-preferred exchange. As the dominant global digital asset exchange, Binance is an important leading indicator for the whole market. [Looking Forward and Macro] Although the global macro-level tensions are rising, the environment could be positive for bitcoin. As Arthur Hayes estimates in his recent blog article, the recent conflict in Venezuela could lower oil prices, reduce energy costs and curb inflation pressures in the US. This allows the Federal Reserve to inject massive dollar liquidity. The flood of fresh liquidity, as Hayes argues, will inevitably flow into risk assets, with bitcoin as a prime beneficiary, acting as a hard money hedge against fiat devaluation.