Yonsei_dent2026-01-02

<Bitcoin Cycle: Entering a Transition Toward a Bear Market?>

Supply in Profit (%) is an on-chain metric that measures the proportion of Bitcoin supply currently held in profit. It is widely used to assess where the market stands within the broader cycle and whether a transition phase is underway. 🟩 Bull Market (Euphoria Phase): ＞80% 🟨 Transition Phase: 55%–80% 🟥 Bear Market / Bottoming Phase: ≤55% At present, Supply in Profit stands at 68.85%, remaining firmly within the transition zone (🟨) after entering a clear downtrend since October 2025. This is not a short-lived pullback, but a sustained multi-month decline, signaling the kind of accumulated fatigue typically observed in the late stages of a cycle. Market internals are gradually weakening, while macro conditions—such as persistent geopolitical risks and a strengthening preference for safe-haven assets—continue to act as headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin. ★ More important than the fact that Supply in Profit has fallen below 80% is how long it remains in this range. If price action continues to consolidate and the metric stagnates around the 70% level, historical cycles suggest an increasing likelihood of a transition into a broader bear market. On the other hand, if the indicator reverses into a positive slope and recovers back above the 75–80% range, the possibility of cycle extension would still remain. 🤔 At this stage, rather than making definitive directional calls, it is more prudent to view the market as being in the early phase of a transition from a bull market, where conservative positioning and disciplined risk management become increasingly important.