XWIN Japan
Is Ethereum’s Supply–Demand Structure Reaching a Turning Point? Exchange Outflows, Renewed Staking Inflows, and On-Chain Structural Signals
The current Ethereum market can be described as a late-stage bearish phase transitioning toward a range-bound environment. Bearish pressure remains dominant, but the character of selling activity is gradually shifting. On-chain data shows Ethereum leaving exchanges at the fastest pace of this cycle. This is not driven by short-term speculation, but by a move toward self-custody, staking, and long-term holding. For the first time in six months, the validator entry queue has exceeded the exit queue, with approximately 745,000 ETH waiting to enter staking versus around 360,000 ETH queued for exit. This suggests renewed staking participation and a tightening medium-to-long-term supply structure. The attached 90-day Spot Taker CVD chart indicates a shift from sell-dominant conditions toward neutral to mild buy pressure. While this does not imply an immediate price rebound, it suggests that aggressive market selling may be losing momentum. At the same time, Ethereum ETF flows remain negative on both daily and weekly bases, meaning financial-product-driven demand continues to act as a headwind. Structurally, Ethereum’s underlying usage continues to expand. In Q4 2025, deployed smart contracts reached a record high of approximately 8.7 million, while on-chain RWA value grew to around $19 billion, led primarily by Ethereum. These indicators point to demand driven by real economic activity rather than speculative positioning. This view would weaken if exchange balances rise again, staking inflows slow materially, or Spot Taker CVD returns to clear sell-side dominance. At present, the base scenario is continued price weakness alongside gradual improvement in Ethereum’s supply–demand structure. However, a renewed acceleration in sell-side flows would require this assessment to be revisited. （Analysis Report No.163） The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.