GugaOnChain2025-12-29

Ambiguity Marks the Current Moment for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is experiencing a moment of ambiguity. The MVRV Z‑Score at –0.24 suggests proximity to bottom zones, signaling slight undervaluation. However, an isolated reading is not enough: metrics such as the Binary CDD show historical patterns of prolonged corrections following consistent distribution signals. SIGNS OF BOTTOM AND CORRECTION ◾ The MVRV Z‑Score A negative zone (such as –0.24) indicates that the market price is below the realized value. This means that many investors are holding unrealized losses. Historically, this condition can lead to the following situation: investors see an opportunity and buy, contributing to market stabilization. - Historical → in previous cycles, prolonged negative readings preceded market bottoms. However, in times of crisis (such as March 2020), the indicator dropped well below –1 before signaling recovery. ◾Binary CDD SMA(7) CDD signaling 1 for several consecutive days reinforces that prolonged correction is not only technical but also behavioral (long‑term holders distributing). Reinforcing the analysis: “Negative Q4 for BTC expands the outlook for another 2 to 3 months of correction”, published on December 26, 2025. - Historical → CDD signaling 1 between March 23 and March 28, 2024 (6 days): correction of 4 months and 8 days until August 5, 2024. → CDD signaling 1 between November 24 and November 29, 2024 (6 days): correction of 4 months and 11 days until April 8, 2025. → Between November 23 and November 26, 2025, there were 4 consecutive days. Can we expect the same behavior? CONCLUSION The neutral analysis shows that BTC may be close to a bottom, but the CDD data and the history of prolonged corrections increase the probability of a few more months of adjustment. The balance lies in recognizing both the potential for recovery and the risk of an extended correction.