XWIN Japan
Why BTC Is Not Accelerating Under Trump’s Inauguration — A Structural Comparison with 2016
The current Bitcoin market is best characterized as a range-bound phase within a broader recovery from a weak trend. While short-term rebounds remain possible, the prevailing scenario is conditionally bearish, with limited momentum for a sustained move higher. In 2025, expectations around crypto policy have become more prominent following President Trump’s inauguration. However, when comparing price behavior to the post-election period in 2016, the market response is clearly different. In 2016, a low-inflation, low-interest-rate environment supported expanding liquidity, and the relatively small size of the crypto market allowed speculative capital to concentrate quickly. As a result, a strong uptrend emerged with a time lag. By contrast, early 2025 follows an extended high-rate period, and financial conditions remain restrictive. Moreover, the larger market size and increased participation have structurally reduced the impact of political events alone on price movements. On-chain data reinforces this cautious stance. The ratio between LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR highlights the current structure: long-term holders are realizing limited profits, while short-term holders are transacting at losses. Historically, such conditions align not with rapid price expansions but with prolonged demand–supply adjustments. As long as long-term holders maintain relative dominance and short-term holder selling is absorbed, downside may be supported; however, upside leadership is likely to remain constrained. A counter-scenario would require a sustained shift to net inflows in ETF flows, alongside a clear deceleration in long-term holder distribution. At present, the base case remains that policy expectations exist, but demand and flows are still heavy. Should these structural indicators show clear improvement, this assessment would need to be revisited. （Analysis Report No.161） The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.