Crypto Mommy2025-12-27

Why rising short-term supply is actually bearish right now

Take a look at the BTC HODL Waves. Typically, a spike in Short-Term Holder (STH, <155 days) supply signals a brewing bull run. But this time, the narrative has flipped. We’re seeing STH supply climb while prices trend lower—this isn't "new blood" entering; it’s "passive bag-holding." The crowd that FOMO’d at $120K in October and those who tried to "buy the dip" in November are now trapped. Instead of providing support, this growing short-term supply has become a massive wall of overhead resistance. Every bounce is met with sell pressure from investors just looking to "break even." We are currently enduring a brutal emotional washout 😩. Since the October liquidation, repeated spikes in Net Realized Loss (NRL) prove that the "dull knife" is finally cutting into the bone. These are classic capitulation signals beginning to surface. The setup is a Demand Vacuum: Exchange Reserves: At multi-year lows. LTH (Long-Term Holders): Showing no interest in selling. The Problem: New buyers are hesitant, creating a liquidity void. While some analysts eye Q1 2026 for a rebound driven by rate cuts and improved macro liquidity, the current thin order book suggests we aren't done yet. Bitcoin likely needs a "Final Shakeout"—potentially a spike below $80K—to hunt for deep liquidity and trigger a massive whale re-accumulation. Don't let the "slow bleed" exhaust you. The real move starts only after the final weak hands are flushed out.