GugaOnChain2025-12-26

Negative Q4 for BTC expands the outlook for another 2 to 3 months of correction

With BTC closing Q4 in the red, the outlook points to another 2 to 3 months of correction, supported by on‑chain metrics and sentiment indicators projecting the continuation of the bear market. The negative result of –19.15%, recorded by the BTC: Quarterly Price Performance indicator, serves as the anchor of the analysis. But the “outlook” goes further: capitulation indicators and complementary metrics broaden the reading that the market is likely to remain under pressure in the short term. KEY CAPITULATION INDICATORS ◾ SOPR < 1 → investors selling at a loss → 0.99 ◾ MVRV-STH < 1 → short‑term holders in capitulation → 0.87 ◾ Supply in Loss → elevated market stress → 35.66% ◾ Fear & Greed Index in “extreme fear” → 20 CONFIRMATION INDICATORS ◾ Market Cap Growth Rate (MA Gap Ratio 30d vs 365d) → –11.65% ◾ ETF Outflows → US$ 825.7M (Dec 18 to Dec 24, 2025) ◾ Coinbase Premium Gap negative → weak demand in the U.S. → –66.11 CONCLUSION Based on the negative performance in Q4 and the convergence of these indicators, the probability is high that the crypto market will remain in a bear market for the next 2 to 3 months, with continued negative performance. This downturn is not just a temporary setback — it sets the stage for a prolonged correction that could extend well into the first quarter of 2026, keeping investors under pressure until capitulation signals are fully absorbed.