GugaOnChain2025-12-17

Institutions flee ETFs, but miners hold the line with a long-term view

Bitcoin remains in correction, trading at US$86,609 at the time of this publication, with a modest daily gain (+0.75%) but a weekly decline (-6.48%). The market shows divergence: ETFs report capital outflows, while Michael Saylor has accumulated more than 671K BTC. Overall sentiment is one of extreme fear (11), yet miners and whales signal retention, suggesting that the long term may offer accumulation opportunities. KEY METRICS Short term – Selling pressure and pessimism ◾ETFs saw an outflow of US$634.8M over two days. The Coinbase Premium Gap at -16.04 and the Fear & Greed Index at 11 reinforce extreme fear. On-chain, the SOPR at 0.98 indicates selling at a loss, the Supply in Loss at 35% reflects stress, and the MVRV-STH at 0.84 signals short-term holder capitulation. Long term – Metrics suggest retention and accumulation ◾The Puell Multiple at 0.85 points to moderate undervaluation, while the MPI at -0.81 shows miners sending fewer BTC to exchanges, reducing selling pressure. The MVRV-LTH at 1.55 indicates long-term holders remain in profit, and whales holding between 1K–10K BTC accumulated +694K BTC over the past 60 days. CONCLUSION The current picture reveals a market in transition, where short-term pessimism contrasts with strategic accumulation. This divergence between institutional outflows and the conviction of major players underscores that Bitcoin oscillates between immediate stress and long-term expectations of appreciation.