RugaResearch2025-11-28

When in Doubt, Zoom Out - Cost Basis in Focus

Cost basis data helps us understand where we stand in the cycle, and right now, it paints a clear map of key zones. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits around 104.5K — and has acted as the first major support and resistance in bull trends. After breaking below it, we’d need to reclaim and hold above this level to reestablish a healthy uptrend. Until then, price action below it still reflects short-term weakness. Zooming out, the US ETF Cost Basis is currently around 79K. While it’s a relatively new metric, it reflects the average acquisition price of institutional-grade players. A move below this level could trigger position stress, asset rebalancing, or even forced exits in certain cases — especially where leverage is involved. It’s a level likely to be defended. Below that, we have the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis, the lowest among the three — and often a region where market bottoms begin to form. These participants are known for buying at value and waiting patiently through volatility. So where do we go from here? If we reclaim 104.5K and hold, the path to new highs opens again. But if we lose momentum and revisit the 79K region, it could put the market under pressure — structurally and psychologically. Will 79K come first, or will 104.5K be reclaimed? That’s the key question now.