Crypto Dan2025-11-24

BTC - Short-term holders have surrendered, but..

Short-term holders' capitulation has appeared. The forces driving the market have succeeded in flipping market participants' sentiment from positive to negative. Although the scale is different, the same movement that was seen at the lows of previous correction phases in this bull cycle has been detected again. However, when looking at the broader picture through the combined long- and short-term SOPR, the current movement can be interpreted in exactly two ways: 1. "If the current zone is a correction phase → this is the bottom" 2. "If the current zone is a bear cycle → the end of the decline is still far away" For now, we need to keep both possibilities open and respond accordingly. In the short term, a rebound is highly likely, but if we fall again and lose the $80,000 level, the probability of facing a much tougher period becomes significantly higher. That said, a drop of more than -70% from the all-time high, like in previous bear cycles, seems to have a low probability this time.