GugaOnChain2025-11-15

Weak spot market and LTHs selling: Bitcoin at risk of further declines

The Bitcoin market faces strong downward pressure after losing the crucial $102K support. On-chain analysis shows the slowdown stems from weak spot demand and persistent selling, indicating supply is outweighing demand. 1. SPOT DEMAND CONTRACTION CVD points to seller dominance and bearish sentiment. The negative Coinbase Premium reinforces weak institutional demand in the U.S., signaling more aggressive selling compared to global markets. 2. LONG-TERM HOLDERS (LTHS) SELLING PRESSURE In 30 days, LTHs sold about 815K BTC, the largest volume since January 2024. These sales occurred during weakness, revealing fatigue and reduced conviction, amplifying the decline amid weak spot demand. 3. RISK PERSPECTIVE The lack of aggressive buying in Spot Taker CVD confirms risks remain tilted downward. Breaking the $102K support and continued LTH selling, combined with weak spot demand, suggest Bitcoin could fall toward the $90K range. CONCLUSION With signs of persistent LTH selling in a weak demand environment, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further declines.