GugaOnChain2025-11-12

Impacts of the U.S. Government Shutdown on Crypto Market Growth Rate

The U.S. government shutdown introduced significant macroeconomic uncertainty that directly affected the growth of the cryptocurrency market. The halt raised fears of global volatility and delayed regulatory progress, such as ETF approvals. Without official economic data—on inflation and employment—the Federal Reserve faced greater difficulty in setting monetary policy, which increased investor caution. Despite the historical resilience of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the unstable political environment and the interruption of services tied to financial regulation reinforced risk perception, even amid moments of stability in the spot market. FLATTENING OF GROWTH RATE AND DATA UNCERTAINTY The analysis of the Market Cap Growth Rate (MA Gap Ratio between 30d and 365d) reveals a sharp slowdown in crypto market growth between Oct 1 and Nov 10. This flattening resulted in an aggregate market cap loss of USD 408 billion, as indicated by the on-chain (Market Cap Comparison) indicator from CryptoQuant. •Bitcoin (BTC): The growth rate fell from 16.75% on October 1 to 6.60% on November 10. •Top 20 Assets: The group of the 20 leading assets (excluding BTC) saw its growth rate drop from 32.29% to 14.67% in the same period. •Mid/Small Cap Assets: This segment experienced the most drastic flattening, with the growth rate plunging from 18.57% on October 1 to just 0.21% on November 10. CONCLUSION ON RESILIENCE AND RISKS The compression in growth rates, especially among smaller assets, reflected risk aversion amid the lack of macroeconomic data and the postponement of key legislation. Although Bitcoin maintained high price levels, the market showed vulnerability to political and regulatory uncertainty. The resumption of government activities and the release of economic indicators will be crucial to restoring confidence and enabling the sector to return to consistent growth.