XWIN Japan
On-Chain Strength Meets Macro Anxiety – Bitcoin Faces a Sentiment Storm
Despite the recent turbulence, Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators continue to display remarkable resilience beneath the surface. According to CryptoQuant data, the percentage of BTC supply held at a loss has surged to around 25%, a level typically associated with capitulation phases in previous cycles. Historically, when this metric spikes during price drawdowns, it often marks exhaustion among weak hands and the start of longer-term accumulation. At the same time, fund-related transaction volume has increased sharply, signaling heightened activity from institutional investors and ETF-related entities. This suggests that large funds may be rebalancing or quietly accumulating positions amid the recent correction — a behavior often observed near market bottoms. In short, the blockchain tells a story of rotation rather than collapse. Coins are moving from short-term, emotionally driven holders to long-term, conviction-based investors. There are no signs of mass liquidations or systemic stress — fundamentals remain solid. However, the macro and political environment paints a more fragile picture. Investor sentiment has weakened as uncertainty builds across the U.S.: political unrest in New York City, the Democratic Party’s recent rise in local elections, and the prolonged government shutdown are amplifying market anxiety. Meanwhile, Trump’s rising approval and escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing are deepening global risk aversion. These factors have contributed to sustained selling pressure from U.S. investors, reflected in the negative Coinbase Premium Index. This disconnect — strong on-chain fundamentals versus weak sentiment — defines the current phase. Bitcoin’s internal metrics point toward quiet accumulation, but the external world remains nervous and reactive. Until geopolitical and policy uncertainties ease, this uneasy balance of strong fundamentals and fragile psychology is likely to persist for a while.