gigisulivan
Stay Calm! This Bull is Done.
I wrote about it a month ago, and all signs continue to point to the fact this Bull run was over in October. There is plenty of social media posts about US legislation, FED rate cuts, the usual Institutional adoption etc. "reasons" for BTC to hit a mythical supercycle and go to 150k tomorrow and 500k next month. Those that have been in this space long enough, know this is desperation calling, especially considering the fact we did not have a proper alt season and BTC's dominance remained high and you should stay calm and just analyse what is in front of you. 1. The cycle timelines To date most reliable way to estimate when Bull runs end is to measure number of weeks/days between Bull run tops (consistently around 1425 days) or from Bear market bottom to Bull run top. Even if you don't want to bother counting days, a clear pattern of BTC topping up every cycle a month earlier is hard to be missed, Dec 2017, Nov 2021, Oct 2025 .... next Sept 2029. 2. Technical analysis Since these are long term moves, always zoom out for better view and to filter out noise. 2025 was pretty much a copy/paste from 2021 Bull run, with two distinct peaks and a mid bull correction. Breaking below 50SMA and closing on Weekly as you see happening this week (blue line) will just be a final "nail in the coffin" (confirmation of Bull run ending). Additionally what I've mentioned before, negative divergence is always very strong signal it is time to take profits, especially if paired with cycle timelines mentioned above. 3. Onchain Metrics Everyone familiar with those, likely had alerts set at certain levels on MVRV, Puell Multiple, NUPL and few others, but none of them hit this cycle, apart from Long Term SOPR sending a warning above "6" value in July. As me and others pointed out recently, other metrics are flattening out so you should not take them at face value anymore and hope that ie. NUPL will hit 0.7. Best to combine all that is available to you and not focus on one type of metrics.