우민규 Woominkyu2025-10-21

Bitcoin BCMI at 0.5 — Cooling Phase, Not a Top

Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) Update The index has retraced back to the 0.5 neutral zone, a level that historically defines the mid-cycle equilibrium between valuation, profit-taking, and sentiment. BCMI aggregates: MVRV (30%) → long-term valuation NUPL (25%) → realized profit/loss condition SOPR (25%) → short-term profit-taking intensity Fear & Greed (20%) → sentiment layer In past cycles (2020, early 2024), a retest of 0.45–0.5 happened right before the next expansion leg. It’s where speculative heat cools off while on-chain value resets. Currently: MVRV ≈ 1.8 → still far from overvaluation zones (> 3.0) SOPR trending near 1.02 → profit-taking stable F&G cooled from 75 → 60 range All components point to a structural mid-cycle correction, not a macro top. If BCMI rebounds from 0.5 → 0.6, momentum likely resumes toward a new local high. If it breaks below 0.45, expect an extended consolidation before the next push. TL;DR: BCMI ≈ 0.5 = equilibrium zone. Market is cooling, not collapsing. Mid-cycle structure remains intact.