CryptoOnchain
Bearish Divergence Between Solana’s Price and Active Addresses
Based on the provided chart, which illustrates the relationship between the price of Solana (SOL) and its daily active addresses over the last 90 days, a significant bearish divergence is observable. This phenomenon occurs when an asset’s price is in an uptrend, while its underlying network activity metrics show a downtrend. Although Solana’s price has seen impressive growth over the past three months, rising from approximately 160 to around 230, the network activity metric has followed an opposite trajectory. Specifically, the 7-Day Moving Average (7-Day MA) of active addresses, which smooths out daily volatility, has experienced a significant decline. It has dropped from approximately 3.4 million at the beginning of the period to roughly 2.2 million towards the end. It is important to note that this analysis is based on counting active addresses using the signer method, meaning only unique addresses that have signed and sent successful transactions (success = true) are included. This method provides a precise measure of users who are actively interacting with the network. This divergence suggests that the recent price rally may be less driven by the growth of the user base and genuine network adoption, and more by speculative activities, large-scale trades by whales, or other market factors. While the price is trending upwards, the decline in daily active users can be seen as a warning sign regarding the long-term sustainability of this growth, as the health of a blockchain network ultimately depends on its widespread adoption and utility.