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536 Days After the Bitcoin Halving, Binance Data Reveals Stable Upward Momentum and a Possible Approach to the Next Peak
Binance data shows that Bitcoin reached $126,000, 534 days after the last halving, which took place on April 20, 2024. This places the market roughly halfway through its four-year price cycle, at 36.7% of the total cycle length. What’s particularly notable at this point is that Bitcoin has grown by 92% since the halving, having traded at around $63,800 at that time. Despite this strong performance, technical indicators suggest the price is still moving within a stable range far from the overbought conditions that typically precede historical peaks. Among the most significant indicators, the Z-Score currently stands at 1.47, placing the price in a "warm" or "neutral momentum" zone, without reaching the elevated levels above 2.5 that are often associated with speculative bubbles. Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average is approximately $115,913, suggesting a steady upward trend without sharp deviations. In addition, the 30-day standard deviation (stddev_30d) remains relatively low at $4,540, reflecting a compression in volatility a condition that typically precedes strong price movements, especially upward, if supported by renewed liquidity inflows. Historically, Bitcoin tends to reach its cycle peaks between 500 and 600 days after halving. If this pattern holds, the market is currently within the critical window that has previously led to major bull market tops, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Overall, Bitcoin appears to be in a phase of balanced upward momentum, marked by moderate signs of institutional accumulation and supply consolidation. As the cycle progresses toward historically significant timing zones, the question remains: will this cycle echo past rallies or will it usher in a more measured and mature bull run?