Carmelo_Alemán
Should BTC Rise in Q4?
The answer becomes evident when analyzing On-Chain metrics. Over the past year, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has increased from $870 Billion to $1.07 Trillion, reflecting solid and sustained growth in the network’s value. In recent weeks, the average daily capital inflow —measured by the SMA (30)— has been around $385 million per day, with a clear upward trend. This steady flow is partly due to the progressive incorporation of new players: institutions, companies, and large investors who strengthen the structural demand for the asset. Likewise, the analysis of Bitcoin UTXO Value Bands shows that large wallets are steadily increasing their BTC holdings. This accumulation pattern reflects strong confidence in the asset and suggests clear expectations of a short-term upward movement. The same is true for miners, who sell only what is necessary to maintain their operations without making significant selling moves. This behavior indicates they maintain a bullish outlook, reinforcing overall confidence in Bitcoin and fueling expectations of a price rebound in the short term. Adding to this, global M2 liquidity is constantly reaching new records, and part of this excess liquidity could flow into Bitcoin within a horizon of about 100 days, providing an additional catalyst for a potential upward push in Q4. Far from being weak, Bitcoin appears very strong: in a constant accumulation zone of capital before rising again and reaching new all-time highs. Therefore, the answer to the initial question is clear: yes, BTC should rise in Q4 and set new all-time highs. Now, how high could the price go? This is a more complex question, especially considering the influence of Market Makers, who sometimes force bearish trends and delay price increases. Nonetheless, given the current context of metrics and accumulation, I sincerely believe that Bitcoin should reach at least $180,000 in this Q4. Signed by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant