XWIN Japan
Bitcoin’s Bull Market Still Intact: On-Chain Signals Point to More Upside
While recent volatility has unsettled traders, on-chain data continues to suggest that Bitcoin’s bull market is not over. Two of the most telling indicators—MVRV ratio and long-term holder behavior—together reveal a picture of resilience beneath the surface. The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the average cost basis of holders, has retreated toward the 2.0 level. Historically, this zone reflects neither panic nor euphoria: investors are still sitting on healthy gains, yet the market has cooled from overheated conditions. Each past cycle has shown that when MVRV consolidates around this range after an early surge, the trend often resets before entering its strongest expansion phase. At the same time, profit-taking activity among long-term investors has diminished. Data shows that holders who have kept coins for months or years are largely refraining from selling into the market. Their conviction effectively reduces available supply, offsetting short-term volatility and creating the conditions for renewed demand to lift prices higher. Taken together, these signals echo previous “mid-cycle” moments such as 2017 and 2020, where Bitcoin slowed down only to resume its climb with even greater momentum. The combination of moderate valuation relative to cost basis and strong holding behavior indicates that this cycle has not reached its terminal stage. In short, Bitcoin’s recent pullbacks appear less like the end of a rally and more like a period of digestion. If history rhymes, today’s consolidation could mark the groundwork for the next major leg upward—suggesting the bull market is alive and well.