oinonen_t2025-09-24

Altcoins in Price Discovery, Exchange Reserves at Record Highs

[BNB and ASTER in Price Discovery Mode] The long-awaited altseason has finally arrived, with Blockchaincenter’s Altcoin Season Index reaching a value of 100 on September 20th. The altseason is reflected in tokens like Binance Coin (BNB), reaching its $1,000 target price. In recent days, a new Hyperliquid competitor, backed by Changpeng Zhao (CZ), has emerged: Aster (ASTER) is up 300% since September 19th. Aster is a cryptocurrency focused on decentralized finance (DeFi), aiming to provide fast, secure, and low-cost transactions. Aster operates on its own blockchain, emphasizing scalability and interoperability with other networks. [Exchange Reserves Reach a Record High] Binance’s ERC-20 stablecoin reserves have been uplifted from August’s low of $32 billion to the current level of $43B, rising 34%, and indicating a significant amount of sidelined liquidity, ready for deployment. This record amount of unused capital will act as a catalyst for further altcoin rallies in Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026. [A Positive Q4 Ahead] Looking toward the Q4, I expect elevated levels of digital asset volatility, and decreasing bitcoin dominance. Ethereum, and bitcoin in correlation, will continue to reach new all-time highs, supported by seasonality. In addition to seasonality, bitcoin is supported by the Energy Value Model (EVM). The model, created by Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments, places bitcoin’s fair price between $145,000 and $168,000. Using $145K as a reference, bitcoin currently ($112K) trades at a 23 percent discount to its energy value, or fair price. After bitcoin and Ethereum, investors will look for higher beta assets and small-cap tokens, creating a favorable altseason environment.