Yonsei_dent2025-08-31

📉 MVRV Momentum Weakens — Dead Cross Confirmed

The market has cooled slightly after Bitcoin hit a new ATH, and MVRV momentum is showing signs of exhaustion with a clear dead cross between the 🔴 30DMA and the 🔵 365DMA. To recap: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares Bitcoin's current market cap to the total cost basis of all coins. It’s widely used to assess whether the asset is over- or undervalued — a kind of “intrinsic value” gauge. By applying monthly (30DMA) and yearly (365DMA) moving averages, we can evaluate market momentum shifts. Right now, that shift is clear. MVRV just printed a dead cross, signaling waning momentum despite recent price strength. Let’s rewind to the 2021 cycle top. Back then, price rose from $64.9k to $69k — a modest +6.3% increase, but MVRV declined, indicating weakening capital inflow. Now in 2025, we’ve seen a +13.3% price increase from $109.4k to $124k, yet MVRV is again falling, suggesting that despite ETF-driven legitimacy, actual capital inflows are less aggressive than they appear. This doesn’t necessarily mean the same outcome is coming — Bitcoin ETFs have introduced more structural stability to the market. But history doesn’t repeat, it rhymes — and the signals from MVRV deserve attention. Risk management and market structure awareness are key moving forward.