Yonsei_dent2025-08-30

📉 Can Bitcoin Hold the STH Cost Basis at $107.8k?

Bitcoin is currently trading around $108.6k, struggling to regain momentum after hitting its all-time high of $124k. Interestingly, this price range has acted as a key resistance zone multiple times this year—in January, May, and June—making the current level a crucial technical and psychological threshold. When we look at the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which represents the average cost basis of short-term investors, the current situation becomes even more significant: 🔴 1w–1m holders: $116.4k 🟠 1–3m holders: $112.6k 🟡 3–6m holders: $93.4k Weighted by their respective Realized Cap share, the average STH cost basis is estimated to be around $107.8k—right near the current price. 📌 If this $107.8k level fails to hold, short-term holders may start locking in losses, leading to increased selling pressure. In that case, the $93.4k zone—where the 3–6 month holder cost basis sits—could become the next major support area to watch. While this is not an overly bearish outlook, it is a critical juncture. Losing this level could unlock further downside, so now is a good time to approach the market with heightened caution and risk awareness.