CryptoMe
๐ฅ Bitcoinโs Hidden Danger Zone: Is $105k the Real Trap?
๐ช๐ป First, on July 14, and then again last week when the price was around $120k, I wrote an article called โThe $111k Bitcoin Gap Nobodyโs Talking About - But Will Be Tested Again.โ ๐ https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/688b51d49ecadc6fb5d921ed-The-111k-Bitcoin-Gap-Nobodys-Talking-About-But-Will-Be-Tested-Again In that article, I explained the UTxO gap that goes down to $111k. Later, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $111,800, which partly filled this gap, and our analysis worked successfully. ๐๐ผโโ๏ธ Now, using the same data, I will show you a different price to pay attention to. 1๏ธโฃ- In the first image, we can see the prices where UTxOs were created, shown in the histogram. As you can see in the image, there is a very large UTxO wall at $105,644. Clearly, there was some cost basis and realization around this level. 2๏ธโฃ- In a similar way, in the second image, we see the average cost of UTxOs held for 1 to 3 months. (This is based on the Realized Price model). Here again, we notice almost the same price; about $106,000. 3๏ธโฃ- When we look at STH-Realized Price, which shows the average cost of people who have held BTC for less than 155 days, the price it shows is $105,350. What a coincidence, it points to the same price again! โ๏ธWill we see a test of $105k, or not? If you are not a top-level fortune teller or prophet, it is impossible to know for sure. But we can say that the $105k price clearly stands out in the data. ๐๐ป To be honest, this is not a signal for a bear market. I seriously believe that Bitcoin will price in much, much higher levels in the medium and long term. ๐ฏ However, short-term and downward price moves like this one can especially hurt leveraged futures contracts traders in derivative market. ๐ฏ Because of that, it would be a smart choice for investors to be careful if the price moves down toward this level in the short term. They should try to lower the risk level of their positions and smoothen the volatility exposure of their portfolio.